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India has prohibited exports of lithium-ion battery black mass with immediate effect, seeking to retain critical mineral-bearing battery waste within the country and strengthen domestic recycling and refining capacity. The Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), under the Department of Commerce, amended the export policy for lithium-ion battery black mass under ITC (HS) code 85491400 from ‘Free’ to ‘Prohibited’ through Notification No. 49/2026-27 dated November 10. The restriction will remain in force until further orders, with transitional arrangements under Para 1.05 of the Foreign Trade Policy 2023 applicable. Black mass is the dark, powder-like material produced by shredding end-of-life lithium-ion batteries and battery manufacturing waste. It contains recoverable quantities of critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese, which are used in electric vehicle batteries, energy storage systems and other advanced applications. The government said India's battery recycling and critical mineral refining capacity has expanded, but remains underutilised due to inadequate feedstock availability. Exports of domestically generated black mass have diverted valuable secondary raw materials to overseas markets, while some domestic recyclers have had to import material to meet their processing requirements. The export prohibition aims to ensure that black mass generated in India is processed domestically, improving feedstock availability and capacity utilisation at recycling and refining facilities. The move is also expected to encourage investment and employment in the sector, increase domestic recovery of critical minerals and reduce reliance on imports and associated foreign exchange outgo. The restriction complements the government's ₹1,500-crore Incentive Scheme for Promotion of Critical Mineral Recycling, approved by the Union Cabinet in September 2025 under the National Critical Mineral Mission. The scheme aims to develop domestic capacity to recover and produce critical minerals from secondary sources, including battery waste and electronic waste. Retaining black mass within the country is expected to provide feedstock to recycling facilities being developed under the scheme. The policy also supports India's broader efforts to strengthen supply chains for battery manufacturing, electric mobility, energy storage and clean-energy technologies through domestic resource recovery and circular-economy initiatives. The export prohibition could redirect Indian-origin black mass towards domestic recyclers, potentially tightening availability for overseas buyers. However, the extent of the benefit to domestic processors will depend on their ability to scale up downstream recovery of battery-grade lithium, cobalt and nickel, rather than merely collecting and shredding spent batteries.

This week, ESS battery cell market prices continued to edge down. In terms of pricing, the ongoing pullback in upstream lithium carbonate prices lowered cell production costs, and combined with intensifying order competition among some enterprises, market transaction prices loosened further. Among them, some top-tier players engaged in price competition for 314Ah cell orders, and some purchase orders shifted due to supplier price differences, intensifying market price competition. On the demand side, boosted by the export rush effect from export tax rebate policy adjustments, utility-scale energy storage cell shipments maintained growth, and overall demand remained resilient. By contrast, the residential ESS market was relatively weak. On one hand, some downstream applications gradually switched to larger-capacity cells, squeezing demand for small-capacity cells such as 100Ah. On the other hand, end-user demand for residential ESS contracted, and combined with pressure to digest earlier channel inventory, the demand boost from the export rush was relatively limited, and overall shipment volume declined. Looking ahead, concentrated export demand in November is expected to provide some support for 314Ah cells, and short-term prices may consolidate on a subdued note. For small-capacity cells such as 100Ah, prices are expected to remain under pressure due to loose supply-demand conditions and inventory digestion pressure. As export rush demand is gradually released, the earlier concentrated shipments may to some extent front-run subsequent orders. Coupled with rising penetration of 500Ah and larger-capacity cells, demand growth for 314Ah cells may gradually slow down, the supply-demand pattern may become looser, and downward price pressure could intensify further. SMM New Energy Research Department Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Chen Bolin 021-51666836 Yang Le 021-51595898 Li Yisha 021-51666730 Huang Chencong 021-51595860

SMM, November 12: This week, electrolyte market prices remained stable. Average prices for ternary power, LFP, and LMO electrolytes were 32,500 yuan/mt, 31,750 yuan/mt, and 24,200 yuan/mt, respectively. Cost side, LiPF6 prices continued to decline. Spot lithium carbonate pulled back further this week, weakening cost support for lithium chemicals; meanwhile, electrolyte production was constrained by sluggish terminal order growth and tight MMDS supply, with no notable production growth, and electrolyte producers' raw material purchase willingness weakened accordingly. Additionally, the scale of leading long-term contract orders increased, so some LiPF6 producers without supporting electrolyte production lines and with low long-term contract ratios faced shipment pressure, with inventories continuing to accumulate, and proactive price concessions drove market prices lower; in the additive segment, VC and FEC supply-demand patterns eased, and prices weakened in tandem. However, due to time lags in cost pass-through, coupled with sharp price increases for some additives amid tight supply and rising raw material costs, electrolyte prices remained stable this week. Looking ahead, terminal battery cell demand is weak, making it difficult to boost upstream raw materials, and major raw material prices are likely to stay weak, with cost pressure continuing to transmit downstream, leaving further downside for electrolyte prices.                                                   SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Xu Mengqi 021-20707868 Hu Xuejie 021-20707858 Chen Bolin 021-51666836 Wang Yizhou 021-51595909

SMM, November 12: Artificial graphite anode prices continued to remain largely stable. Leading players had full order books and capacity utilization rates fluctuated at highs, but undercurrents were clearly increasing. Falling coke prices weakened cost support, structural differentiation signals in battery makers' procurement strengthened, and the suspension of export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anodes was extended, temporarily removing uncertainty over the export channel. The year-end rush to export is expected to continue, providing a buffer for demand and price trends. Looking ahead, the equilibrium of artificial graphite being "hard to fall yet hard to rise" remains unbroken, but the balance has shifted from "cost support" to "demand support." If December battery cell production schedules weaken clearly, anode prices could see their first substantive loosening of this cycle. Until then, stability will remain the dominant theme. Natural graphite, meanwhile, continued to struggle at the other extreme, hovering near cost levels under heavy inventory pressure, with sluggish trading and no visible catalyst for a reversal in the short term. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Chen Bolin 021-51666836 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Xu Mengqi 021-20707868 Hu Xuejie 021-20707858 Yang Le 021-51595898 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827 Li Yisha 021-51666730 Huang Chencong 021-51595860 Lin Ziya 021-5166-6902

SMM, November 12: This week, graphitisation tolling fees held steady, with Acheson furnace high-density raw material at 9,500 yuan/mt and low-density raw material at 10,250 yuan/mt, while box furnace high-density raw material stood at 8,600 yuan/mt and low-density raw material at 9,200 yuan/mt. Downstream demand growth slowed, and the push for lower prices persisted. Toll manufacturers' momentum to hike fees also weakened as the cost side cooled, but the underlying logic of tight effective graphitisation capacity remained intact. Coupled with high electricity prices during the dry season, the graphitisation tolling market entered a silent standoff of "no hikes, no concessions." In the short term, the key to the graphitisation market lies in the offsetting cost forces of rising dry-season electricity prices and softening raw material coke prices: electricity costs are rigidly rising while coke prices pull back. Against this backdrop, both upside and downside room for processing fees are narrowing, making consolidation at highs the most likely scenario in the short term. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Chen Bolin 021-51666836 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Xu Mengqi 021-20707868 Hu Xuejie 021-20707858 Yang Le 021-51595898 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827 Li Yisha 021-51666730 Huang Chencong 021-51595860 Lin Ziya 021-5166-6902

SMM, November 12: This week, the softening trend in the raw material coke market for anode applications was further confirmed. As international oil prices continued to plunge from recent highs, the average price of low-sulphur petroleum coke fell further, pulling back to around 4,655 yuan/mt, a weekly decline of about 70 yuan, further cementing the softening trend that began last week. The average price of oil-based green needle coke held steady at 7,525 yuan/mt, with producers still intent on holding prices firm, but inquiries were sparse and trading was sluggish, with the transaction center quietly edging lower. Looking ahead, if oil prices continue their downward trajectory, the waning cost support will push the price center gradually lower. SMM New Energy Research Team Wang Cong 021-51666838 Ma Rui 021-51595780 Feng Disheng 021-51666714 Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875 Zhang Haohan 021-51666752 Wang Zihan 021-51666914 Wang Jie 021-51595902 Chen Bolin 021-51666836 Xu Yang 021-51666760 Xu Mengqi 021-20707868 Hu Xuejie 021-20707858 Yang Le 021-51595898 Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827 Li Yisha 021-51666730 Huang Chencong 021-51595860 Lin Ziya 021-5166-6902

SMM, November 12: Dragged down by the decline in SHFE lead futures, mainstream quotations in China's waste lead-acid battery market were broadly lowered by 20-50 yuan/mt today. From the recycling side, suppliers at retail outlets showed a notably stronger willingness to sell today. Amid the continuous drop in lead prices, some suppliers exhibited panic sentiment and concentrated shipments, resulting in a greater release of market supply compared with the earlier period. In the short term, scrap battery quotations are expected to consolidate on a subdued note and move sideways around current levels: lead prices are falling and smelters are pushing for lower prices, so prices encounter resistance on the upside; however, smelters' low inventories and the overall tightness in circulating supply still provide a floor for prices, limiting the room for a deep decline. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the actual implementation of emergency response measures in the north, smelters' procurement pace amid production cuts, and changes in suppliers' willingness to sell.

SMM, November 11: Today, mainstream quotations in China's waste lead-acid battery market remained stable. Lead prices have continued to move sideways for several days, with suppliers of scrap batteries still showing strong wait-and-see sentiment and limited release of supply, keeping market trading subdued. Notably, several regions in the north have successively issued heavy pollution weather alerts in recent days, and some secondary lead smelters in the affected areas may face production halts or restrictions. The actual impact will depend on how enterprises implement emission reductions. According to an SMM survey, south China currently has no such alerts and has not been affected. In the short term, scrap battery prices are expected to remain largely stable, moving sideways around current levels.

SMM, November 10: Mainstream quotations for China's waste lead-acid battery market remained stable today, with a few smelters making individual adjustments based on their own scrap battery raw material inventory levels, while the overall price level held steady. Affected by suppliers holding back from selling scrap batteries and tight circulating supply, difficulties in purchasing on the recycling side continued. The sluggish collection was transmitted upstream, resulting in mediocre performance and an overall tight supply of scrap battery arrivals at smelters. In the short term, scrap battery prices are expected to remain largely stable and move sideways, with the pace largely in sync with lead prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to the consumption of raw material inventories at smelters, as well as the impact of lead price trends on suppliers' willingness to sell.

Zambia is seeking investment in battery and electric vehicle manufacturing to retain more value from its mineral resources. The latest investment appeal reinforces that ambition without announcing a plant capacity or commissioning schedule. Neighbouring Zimbabwe offers a regional example of progress in lithium processing, although concentrates still dominate its lithium export earnings.                                                                                                                                                                Zambia seeks investment across the battery and EV chain In a statement made on the 22nd of October 2026, the Zambia Development Agency (ZDA) had urged investment in EV, battery and component manufacturing near mineral sources. Speaking at the Zambia Mining Insaka CEO Roundtable, emphasis on predictable policy and which value-added products Zambia should export through the Lobito Corridor. The statement gives no committed investment value, plant capacity or start date. Lithium potential still requires commercial definition ZDA also highlighted lithium alongside nickel and manganese, which are major battery materials. Lithium was already included in Zambia’s National Critical Minerals Strategy 2024-2028. The strategy records occurrences around Mapatizya in Southern Province, Nyimba and Lundazi in Eastern Province, and several districts in Central Province. Occurrences alone do not establish commercially mineable reserves or a reliable supply of battery-grade feedstock. The ambition also builds on the Zambia–DRC battery initiative. UNECA reported in April 2024 that the countries were reviewing a pre-feasibility study for a joint battery and EV special economic zone, following a March 2023 framework agreement. Zimbabwe adds lithium sulphate to its export mix MMCZ figures put Zimbabwe’s lithium export sales at approximately US$2.159 billion in January-September 2026. Lithium sulphate contributed US$190.52 million on an estimated 33,807 mt, compared with no recorded sulphate sales in the corresponding period of 2025. Mining Zimbabwe attributed the sulphate exports to Huayou’s Arcadia operation. Huayou said its Zimbabwe base held its first lithium sulphate shipment ceremony on 25 April 2026. Its ATZ refinery is located beside the Prospect Lithium Zimbabwe (PLZ) concentrator in the Arcadia mining area and has a stated design capacity of 50,000 mt of lithium sulphate a year in product capacity. Zimbabwe lithium export sales in January-September 2026 Product Value US$ million Share of reported total Spodumene concentrate 1,812 83.9% Lithium sulphate 190.52 8.8% Petalite 155.29 7.2% Reported total ≈2,159 100% Zimbabwe’s government has maintained its stated plan to ban lithium concentrate exports from January 2027. A February 2026 suspension was followed by a resumption under export quotas. The pace of new processing capacity and any transition arrangements will be important for 2027 feedstock availability. Lithium sulphate is an intermediate product Lithium sulphate requires further conversion into lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide for battery materials. Component and cell manufacturing, followed by pack and vehicle assembly, involve additional processes and inputs. Spodumene assessments fell about 24 percent from 9 to 30 October The three Zimbabwean spodumene grades fell by 24.0-24.6% between early to late October 2026. All three declined in each of the three weekly comparisons. The 6% Li₂O assessment reached US$1,295/mt on 30 October, within a range of US$1,250-1,340/mt. SMM assessment values supplied in the draft. CIF Chinese main ports, dry basis. Historical values were not independently retrieved from the public pages; see the data note. Zimbabwean spodumene assessments in October 2026 Grade 9 Oct 16 Oct 23 Oct 30 Oct 30 Oct range 9-30 Oct change   6% Li₂O   1,705   1,480    1,405 1,295 1,250-1,340 -410 (-24.0%)   5.5% Li₂O   1,585   1,400    1,315 1,200 1,160-1,240 -385 (-24.3%)    5% Li₂O   1,485      1,320         1,225       1,120      1,030-1,210    -365 (-24.6%) US$/mt, dry basis; CIF Chinese main ports. Fe₂O₃ ≤1.5%, mica ≤3%, moisture ≤15%. Values and ranges are from the supplied draft; changes are recalculated. In the week to 30 October, the 6% grade fell US$110/mt (7.83%), the 5.5% grade fell US$115/mt (8.75%) and the 5% grade fell US$105/mt (8.57%). The largest absolute weekly decline occurred from 9 to 16 October, at US$225/mt, US$185/mt and US$165/mt, respectively. SMM view For Zambia, the next test is whether investment promotion produces projects with defined feedstock, financing, reliable power and customer offtake. Chemical processing, battery cell production and EV assembly need separate capacity targets and commissioning milestones. Zimbabwe’s experience demonstrates a route into intermediate chemicals; however, does not establish the economics of a Zambian battery or EV plant. Progress should be judged by disclosed resource assessments, financed plants, commissioned throughput and executed offtakes, with separate milestones for chemical processing, cell production and EV assembly.

Following the previous review of cathode materials and hard carbon anodes, the midstream and downstream segments of the sodium-ion battery industry chain in October showed a more pronounced "two-sided" dynamic. On one side was a sprint in volume—top-tier electrolyte producers set another monthly shipment record, battery cell production rose 2% MoM and surged 106% YoY, and Q4 entered a concentrated delivery period driven by the grid connection deadline (December 30). On the other side were concerns about quality—the entire electrolyte chain still relied primarily on scattered project-based orders, lacking continuous and stable monthly deliveries, while many previously filed lithium-sodium hybrid energy storage projects on the cell side were delayed or stalled due to funding and land issues. The industry as a whole remained at the megawatt (MW)-scale capacity stage. Rising volumes, weakening prices, and unstable orders formed the underlying tone of the midstream and downstream segments in October. 1. Electrolyte: Shipments Hit Another Record High, Prices Diverge Downward with Formulation Changes, Project-Based Transmission Across the Chain 1. Demand Side: Top-Tier Shipments Break New Highs, NFPP System Remains the Dominant Mainstream In October, the sodium-ion battery electrolyte market continued its upward trend, up 11% MoM and up 166% YoY. Top-tier producers set another monthly shipment record, with clients covering state-owned enterprise-backed energy storage customers and small power application customers. As downstream energy storage producers concentrate their year-end push in November and December, top-tier producer shipments are expected to break through further, with overall industry shipments continuing to rise. In terms of demand structure, shipments remained dominated by NFPP-system electrolyte, serving energy storage, start-stop, and small power applications, while shipments for other routes such as Prussian blue and layered oxide remained relatively small. 2. Producer Operations: Ample Capacity but Unstable Orders, Low Willingness to Produce NaPF6 From the perspective of producer operations, industry capacity remained generally ample, but order stability was clearly insufficient, with mostly scattered project-based inquiries and a lack of long-term bulk order support. The upstream sodium salt segment was also under pressure: top-tier NaPF6 producers saw monthly sales basically flat compared with September. Current NaPF6 capacity is not in short supply, but the production side lacks stable bulk order support, leaving producers with low willingness to produce. On the demand side, some traditional lithium battery giants have been slow to advance their sodium-ion battery businesses, with little meaningful growth expected within this year, and demand release is expected to be delayed until next year. 3. Price side: Formula determines price, industry overall falls under pressure Electrolyte prices are strongly correlated with formulas, and the industry overall is on a downward trend, with clear price stratification across different scenarios and routes: - Small power and high-volume scenarios: Prices are relatively low, around 20,000 yuan/mt, with a maximum of no more than 25,000 yuan/mt, representing the current price floor; - Energy storage and start-stop scenarios: Due to higher additive usage, formula costs are higher, and prices are relatively higher; - Prussian blue route: Shipments are relatively small, and prices are higher than the NFPP and layered oxide routes, with a range covering 20,000-30,000 yuan/mt; - Special customized formulas: Unit prices can reach above 30,000 yuan; - Small-batch products: Unit prices even exceed 40,000 yuan/mt. Specific transaction prices are directly linked to client volume, payment terms, and credit periods. The price spread for the same formula across different clients can reach several thousand yuan/mt. Upstream raw material side, mainstream transaction prices for NaPF6 remain at 72,000-73,000 yuan/mt; spot order prices for sodium fluoride (NaF) are mostly at 31,000-32,000 yuan/mt, while 30-mt vehicle-level orders can dip to 29,000-30,000 yuan/mt; sulphuric acid prices pulled back and stabilized after a sharp earlier rise, and hydrofluoric acid prices subsequently remained stable. Overall raw material fluctuations are limited, and sodium fluoride (NaF) price fluctuations have a relatively small impact on NaPF6 costs. 4. Competitive landscape: Project-based transmission at each level, sodium fluoride (NaF) process routes diverge Demand is transmitted project by project along the "battery cell—electrolyte—NaPF6—sodium fluoride (NaF)" chain, and the entire chain lacks continuous monthly stable delivery demand. This is the most fundamental structural issue in the current sodium-ion battery electrolyte segment. The battery industry is generally cautious about capacity expansion, concerned that there will be no orders to take up after production starts, resulting in idle capacity. Looking ahead: November production is expected to remain stable MoM, with a significant YoY increase of 159%. Concentrated energy storage volume is expected to drive electrolyte shipments to continue rising, but full-year NaPF6 shipments falling short of expectations indicates that the industry's real scale-up still needs to wait for large-scale implementation by leading battery cell clients. Although some leading players have reported that next year's demand will grow significantly (authenticity yet to be verified), poor order stability and downward price pressure remain the core variables facing the industry. Enterprises with formula advantages and strong client relationships will be the first to benefit. 2. Sodium-ion battery cells: Production up 2% MoM and 106% YoY, the "delivery" vs. "fulfillment" debate amid year-end grid connection rush 1. Supply and delivery: Q4 enters concentrated delivery period, project fulfillment remains unsatisfactory In October, sodium-ion battery cell production increased 2% MoM and surged 106% YoY, as the market entered the concentrated delivery period ahead of the year-end grid connection deadline. Driven by energy storage projects generally requiring "December 30" grid connection, Q4 shipments are expected to peak, with orders concentrated for delivery in November and December; the standard delivery cycle after winning an energy storage project tender is 30-60 days, generally requiring advance stockpiling. However, from the perspective of project implementation, industry fulfillment remains unsatisfactory: a large number of previously filed market-oriented commercial lithium-sodium hybrid energy storage projects have been delayed or stalled due to funding, land, and other issues, with projects in some regions widely postponed. Newly launched tenders before year-end are essentially unable to achieve grid connection within the year and will be deferred to next year. By region, the pace of project implementation is determined by provincial policies, with south China benefiting from no low-temperature adaptation requirements and relatively lower construction costs. The industry as a whole remains at the megawatt-hour capacity stage, with a clear gap compared to the gigawatt-hour scale of lithium batteries, and the market's blind optimism warrants caution—many announced projects may ultimately fail to materialize on schedule. 2. Enterprise operations: Ramp-up and delivery in parallel, inventory extremely low, orders scheduled through December Capacity ramp-up and order delivery are advancing in parallel. Among top-tier players, the two-wheeler segment is currently focused on offline retail as a replacement for lead-acid batteries; ESS sector producers mostly have monthly capacity in the tens of megawatt hours, with newly commissioned bases still in the ramp-up phase and toll processing used as a stopgap when in-house capacity is insufficient. After Q4, toll processing is expected to gradually contract as in-house capacity is released. On the inventory side, sodium-ion battery cell inventory overall is extremely low, far below the conventional weekly stockpiling level for lithium batteries, with some orders already scheduled through December. Product iteration is accelerating: large-format battery cells are planned for mass production next year, and sodium-ion large cells require only air cooling to meet thermal management needs; large cylindrical cells target start-stop, small power, and behind-the-meter (BTM) energy storage applications, with more producers expected to follow in large cylindrical cells. Notably, scrap volume in the sodium-ion battery recycling segment has increased significantly YoY, as continuous operation of sodium-ion cell production lines drives concentrated output of electrode and cell scrap, indirectly confirming improved capacity utilization rates at top-tier players. 3. Price side: overall stable with slight weakness, top-tier producers breaking even and small/medium players at a loss In October, sodium-ion battery cell prices were generally stable with slight weakness, with clear price spreads across application segments: - Energy storage cells: mainstream transaction price around 0.55 yuan/Wh, the largest price band by shipment volume; - Large cylindrical cells for start-stop applications: above 0.6 yuan/Wh, with higher C-rate performance requirements; - Low-price quotes: although some enterprises in the market have quoted below 0.5 yuan/Wh, these can only be delivered in small batches and lack scale reference value; On the profitability side, top-tier battery cell producers' costs and selling prices were basically flat, at a break-even state, while most small and medium sodium-ion battery enterprises remained loss-making, and upstream suppliers were also operating near the cost line; a significant cost decline is expected only after industry volume expansion from H2 2027 to 2028, when costs are expected to fall below those of lithium batteries. 4. Competitive landscape: application scenarios diverging, substitution and being substituted occurring simultaneously Application scenario divergence continued. The penetration rate in the two-wheeler segment remained low, but batch demand from operational scenarios such as shared e-bikes, scenic area rentals, and express delivery three-wheelers is taking shape, with long cycle life characteristics fitting high-frequency use; sodium-ion batteries in home energy storage and communication base station scenarios were relatively less affected by lithium carbonate price fluctuations, with low price sensitivity for post-PACK exports to Europe and the US and ample profit margins; sodium-ion battery energy storage overall remained in the pilot testing stage; AIDC low-power backup power supply progress remained at the sampling stage, with clear advantages in outdoor no-air-conditioning scenarios. On the competition front, flow batteries, with their safety and 20-year design life, diverted some demand from sodium-ion batteries in long duration energy storage (LDES) (unit price around 2.2 yuan/Wh, limited to demonstration projects); top-tier lithium battery enterprises' sodium-ion battery collaborations still prioritized their existing lithium battery material partners; sodium-ion battery support policies had not yet been implemented, with no subsidies in place. Looking ahead: November sodium-ion battery cell production is expected to surge 27% MoM, up 139% YoY. The Q4 delivery peak continues, and next year's main highlights include mass production of large cells, volume growth in home storage exports, and expansion into high-power scenarios (frequency regulation, fast charging, AIDC), but project delivery rates, price reduction pace, and policy implementation progress remain key variables in whether the industry can move from "pilot" to "scale."III. SMM Views and Summary Linking the four segments of cathodes, hard carbon, electrolyte, and battery cells this month, the main threads of the sodium-ion battery industry chain in October can be distilled into three points: First, volume growth is certain, but the quality of growth has yet to catch up. Cathodes were up 260% YoY, hard carbon up 186% YoY, electrolyte up 166% YoY, and battery cells up 106% YoY—all four curves posted impressive YoY growth rates. Yet cathode capacity ramp-up fell short of expectations, hard carbon faced "orders but no goods," electrolyte had "ample capacity but scattered orders," and battery cells saw "unsatisfactory project fulfillment." All four point to the same conclusion—what currently constrains the industry is real orders and delivery pace, not capacity. Second, price pressure is transmitting upstream along the chain. At the battery cell end, leading players have already reached break-even and small players are losing money; quotes below 0.5 yuan/Wh may not be representative in scale, but they have already sent a signal. Transmitted to electrolyte, pricing is formula-based and trending downward overall; further upstream to NaPF6 and sodium fluoride, costs are already near the bottom. Without consecutive monthly stable orders, the entire chain lacks bargaining leverage. Third, 2027-2028 will be the watershed for cost and scale. SMM believes that a substantial decline in battery cell costs will have to wait until H2 2027 to 2028, after the industry expands volume, at which point cost advantages will emerge. Before that, the "project-based" order model will continue to suppress capacity utilization rates and profitability. Enterprises with formulation advantages, strong client relationships, and integrated costs will be the first to navigate through the cycle. Core judgment: November cathode, hard carbon, and battery cell production is expected to rise 9%, 6%, and 27% MoM, respectively. Q4 will see a "front-loaded, back-light" shipment pace coexisting with a "volume up, price weak" pricing pattern. The three preconditions for the industry to move from "pilot" to "scale" are: batch orders from leading battery cell clients materializing, a substantive improvement in energy storage project fulfillment rates, and supportive policies actually taking effect. If any one of the three is missing, next year's high-growth expectations will need to be discounted.

Entering Q4, the sodium-ion battery industry chain has reached the most critical delivery verification period of the year. SMM data shows that in October, sodium-ion battery cathode material production increased 3% MoM and surged 260% YoY, while hard carbon anode production pulled back slightly by 4% MoM but surged 186% YoY—the high YoY growth rates confirm that the industry remains on a zero-to-one volume expansion trajectory, but the mediocre MoM performance reveals another reality: the pace of capacity ramp-up has generally lagged market expectations, with a clear time lag between order growth and actual delivery. On the pricing side, NFPP cathode quotes diverged, precursors hovered near cost lines, and iron phosphate supply-demand tension stayed high. The two-way squeeze of cost pressure and order losses below cost is reshaping the industry's competitive landscape. 1. Cathode Materials: Production Up 3% MoM, Capacity Release Falls Short of Expectations, Orders Accelerating Toward Top-Tier Players 1. Supply side: Ramp-up hindered, delivery capability supplemented by "outsourcing + toll processing" In October, sodium-ion battery cathode material production increased 3% MoM and surged 260% YoY. The overall market operated steadily, but capacity release falling short of expectations was the most prominent contradiction this month. Although 10 kt-class new lines gradually entered commissioning, compounded by line switchovers and equipment changes, actual output still failed to meet the original ramp-up targets. Some enterprises improved delivery capability through outsourced processing and other means; once downstream processes are fully connected after mid-November, monthly capacity is expected to reach the kt level. 2. Demand side: Clear divergence, growth concentrated in small power and energy storage The demand side showed significant divergence: in October, some enterprises shipped only in the hundreds of mt, while November orders have already increased to several hundred mt and will be delivered in batches, with growth mainly coming from small power and some energy storage orders. However, it is worth noting that if lithium carbonate prices continue to weaken, December market conditions may fall short of November—some clients' new orders have already shown losses below cost, and downstream willingness to take orders has clearly declined. From the perspective of enterprise operations, the trend of orders concentrating toward top-tier players is becoming increasingly evident: industry leaders have orders on hand exceeding 1 kt, while their in-house monthly capacity is only several hundred mt and cannot fully cover demand, requiring a dual-line approach of "in-house production + toll processing" to ensure delivery. 3. Price side: NFPP quotes diverge, with cost pressure centered on iron phosphate October NFPP quotes remained relatively stable, with mainstream transaction prices concentrated at 24,000-27,000 yuan/mt. In the short term, there is clearly no room for price increases, nor for price cuts, and prices have entered a stalemate range. Cost-side pressure remains concentrated in the iron phosphate segment. Although phosphoric acid prices have pulled back from 12,000 yuan/mt to around 9,000 yuan/mt, iron phosphate prices remain at approximately 16,000 yuan/mt due to tight supply and demand, significantly above the reasonable range of 12,000-13,000 yuan/mt. Persistently high raw material costs are pushing downstream material enterprises to accelerate self-built iron phosphate production lines or form joint ventures with phosphorus chemical companies, advancing industry chain integration. In the precursor segment, mainstream transaction prices are 19,000-20,000 yuan/mt, with large orders as low as 17,000-18,000 yuan/mt, already essentially at cost levels. Enterprises generally adopt tiered pricing to secure major clients. 4. Competitive landscape: Tier differentiation accelerates, market exit approaches From the competitive landscape perspective, tier differentiation within the industry is accelerating. Top-tier cathode enterprises with planned capacity of 10 kt-level projects are coming online successively, steadily expanding their leading edge. Small and mid-sized startups are under pressure due to tightening financing environments and delayed production line construction, with some enterprises' publicly claimed capacity still lagging behind actual production. Another noteworthy signal: NFPP precursor enterprises generally show low willingness to cross over into cathode production, mainly due to concerns about direct competition with downstream clients—this has objectively maintained the existing competitive boundaries in the cathode segment. Looking ahead: Q4 cathode shipments may show a "high-then-low" trend, with prices remaining weak under the dual squeeze of cost support and inverted order losses. Top-tier players with scale capacity, integrated costs, and quality client structures will benefit first, and industry consolidation and concentration are expected to accelerate. November sodium-ion battery cathode production is expected to increase 9% MoM and surge 162% YoY. II. Hard Carbon Anode: Production Edges Down 4% MoM, Commissioning Window Determines Year-End Output, Stockpiling Intent Rises 1. Supply Side: Orders in the Hundreds of mt, Deliveries Yet to Scale Up In October, the hard carbon anode material market remained generally stable, with production edging down 4% from September while surging 186% YoY. Although most enterprises received orders in the hundreds of mt in October, actual deliveries have yet to scale up due to capacity constraints—"orders without goods" is the current reality for this segment. 2. Enterprise Operations: October-November Is the Critical Window Before Ramp-Up, Inventory Strategies Diverge From an operational perspective, industry capacity expansion was not yet completed in H1. In H2, proprietary new production lines entered a concentrated commissioning period, making October-November the critical window for fine-tuning and pre-ramp-up preparation. Whether stable output can be achieved in December depends heavily on the commissioning results during these two months. On inventory strategy, enterprises' willingness to stockpile has risen notably, but approaches have diverged: Stockpiling camp: Safety inventory has been significantly extended from the previous 3-5 days, with some enterprises already holding inventories in the hundreds of mt, building reserves ahead of next year's demand release; - Light inventory camp: Some enterprises maintain only 10-20 mt of modest stockpiles, reasoning that hard carbon is a versatile material with low resale risk, eliminating the need for heavy inventory to tie up capital. 3. Technology Routes: Multiple Paths in Parallel, Standards Undecided, Consistency Remains the Core Pain Point On the technology front, biomass-based, coal-based, and resin-based routes are advancing in parallel with no unified standard yet. Consistency of the biomass route, constrained by natural raw material fluctuations, remains the biggest pain point; the resin-based route offers better consistency but at high cost. Moreover, downstream top-tier battery cell manufacturers' route switching is still in the sample validation stage, leaving demand sustainability in question. The outcome of the route competition will directly determine the allocation pattern of the next round of orders. Looking ahead: November hard carbon production is expected to increase 6% MoM and surge 197% YoY. As upstream and downstream capacity is released simultaneously and differentiated application scenarios (low-temperature, high C-rate) gradually open up, top-tier players with scaled delivery capability, cost control, and client validation advantages are expected to benefit first, while small and mid-sized producers whose capacity claims are disconnected from actual deliveries will accelerate their exit from the market. III. SMM Views and Summary Based on the October performance of both cathode and anode segments, SMM identifies three key themes: First, the industry has entered the "orders validating capacity" phase. The high YoY growth rates of 260% and 186% indicate that the demand-side story for sodium-ion batteries is materializing, but the reality of cathode ramp-up falling short of expectations and hard carbon facing "orders without supply" is equally clear—Q4 is the litmus test for companies' actual delivery capabilities, and the gap between advertised capacity and actual production will be priced in by the market. Second, the pricing system is being squeezed from both ends by costs and price inversion. Iron phosphate at 16,000 yuan/mt is significantly higher than the reasonable range of 12,000–13,000 yuan/mt, large precursor orders are already near the cost line, and some cathode-side client orders are loss-making with inverted pricing—industry chain profits are being compressed from both upstream raw materials and downstream clients, making integrated layouts (self-built iron phosphate, joint-venture phosphoric chemical operations) the common choice among top-tier players. Third, market exit and consolidation will be the dominant theme from Q4 through next year. With orders concentrating among top-tier players, tightening financing conditions, and diverging capacity commitment fulfillment, enterprises with scaled capacity, integrated costs, and quality client structures will be the first to benefit; conversely, participants with inflated capacity claims and lagging delivery will be rapidly marginalized. November cathode and hard carbon production is expected to increase 9% and 6% MoM, respectively, and the industry will accelerate the completion of its first round of reshuffling amid coexisting volume growth and price weakness.

SMM, November 9: Mainstream quotations for China's waste lead-acid battery market remained generally stable today. Recyclers reported that purchasing scrap batteries has become somewhat more difficult, mainly due to the recent downward trend in scrap battery prices, suppliers' weak willingness to sell and continued sentiment of holding back from selling, coupled with tight circulating supply in the current market and relatively limited arrivals. Overall, scrap battery prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the pace of movement largely in sync with lead prices. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the pace at which smelters draw down their raw material inventories of scrap batteries, in order to gauge their purchasing demand and the pace of price adjustments.

The 2026 (4th) Li-ion Battery Europe 2026 , organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and supported by the Catalonia Trade & Investment (ACCIÓ), concluded successfully at the Hilton Barcelona in Spain on November 3! The event brought together decision-makers from across the entire European lithium battery industry value chain, as well as authoritative representatives from the European Union governments, to discuss and interpret the key issues currently facing the European battery industry. This summit provided an in-depth analysis of the implementation and latest developments of the European New Battery Regulation, the Battery Passport initiative, and the Critical Raw Materials Act. It further explored the policy support and cooperation prospects for China-Europe battery projects, and discussed how global collaboration can drive the development of the European domestic lithium battery supply chain. During the keynote sessions, industry leaders and technical experts from around the world shared their insights on the industry's critical issues. The key topics include:  Timetable for technology roadmaps—when solid-state batteries will enter mass production and whether direct recycling can move beyond the laboratory; Structural weaknesses of the industry chain—how raw materials can underpin industrial sovereignty, how the supply-demand balance for raw materials can be rebuilt, and how recycling can move toward commercial operation; Timeline and strategic window for solid-state battery industrialisation; New long-term supply-demand balance for battery raw materials driven by the twin engines of EV and ESS; How battery raw materials have become a core pillar of Europe's industrial sovereignty; Practical path toward commercial operation of battery recycling technologies in Europe; Critical leap of direct recycling technology from laboratory breakthroughs to industrialisation.   In addition, SMM also arranged multiple rounds of panel dicussions, with topics covering capital, collaboration, technology, supply chain and recycling, forming a complete problem-solving pathway for the industry.  Restoring Confidence and Resilience in Europe's Battery Sector Cross-Border Synergies and JV Practices in Europe's Battery Ecosystem Strategic Repositioning of Investments Across the European Battery Value Chain and Capital Flows Navigating the Future - A Dialogue on Frontier Battery Technology Roadmaps Localization of Battery Equipment and Materials – Opportunities and Hurdles Diversifying Feedstock Sources for Local Refineries and Cross-Continental Synergy Frameworks Flattening the Lithium Cost Curve – Increasing Supply from DLE Projects Enhancing Local Processing Capabilities in Battery Recycling – Strategies for Capacity Building Enhancing Efficiency and Reducing Costs in European Battery Recycling Technologies 》Click to view the photo  gallery   Opening Remarks   Richard Clark, Global Head of Specialty Materials and Processes, Appian Capital Advisory  Adam  Fan, Chairman, SMM  Ms. Tianqi Zhang, China Desk, Foreign Direct Investment Unit, ACCIÓ     Panel Discussion: Restoring Confidence and Resilience in Europe's Battery Sector Moderator: Greg Pitt, Vice President of Battery Materials, Worley Panelists: Yann Vincent, Founder and President of Excellion Management, former CEO of Automotive Cells Company (ACC) Gemma Cooper, Chief Commercial Officer, Tees Valley Lithium Pau Sanchis Matoses, Director of EU Public Affairs and Policy, CATL Dr. Nicolo Campagnol, Chief Commercial Officer, Basquevolt Amy Sandhu, Head of Global Advocacy BASF Battery Materials, BASF   The panelists argued that the core issue facing Europe's battery industry is not "whether to be self-reliant" but "how to build it." Given the reality that prices, technology, and upstream materials are all constrained by external dependencies, Europe should abandon the pursuit of complete self-sufficiency and instead build "resilience" into an achievable, investable industrial capability through multi-party cooperation with China, the U.S., and South Korea, the establishment of a diversified supply system, and clear legislation with stable policy signals. In practical terms, turning the vision into reality requires policy stability above all. Repeated reversals on policies such as the 2035 ban on internal combustion engine vehicles will directly undermine investment confidence; the key to success lies in clear legislation, genuinely effective cooperation mechanisms, an end to empty talk, and the advancement of project implementation. Panel Discussion: Cross-Border Synergies and JV Practices in Europe's Battery Ecosystem Moderator: Prof. David Ortega, Managing Partner, Muvmi Mobility Consulting Panelists: Edu Blanco Corbató, President, CEO, and Co-Founder, Santana Motors   Rafael Ruiz Rincón, President, CEO, and Chairman, EV Motors (EBRO) Brian Xie, Director of International Business, North Star Advanced Recycling Technology   Marcel Queren, European Expansion Director, LY iTech (SuzhouLinghui New Energy Tech Co., Ltd.)   The panelists noted that battery localization in Europe should be advanced "layer by layer" and that the "business case must add up." Where the numbers work, start first (assembly, testing); where they do not, rely on Chinese supply (parts). For recycling, a business that is inherently local, the approach should be to exchange experience and data for partners rather than selling equipment. Joint ventures should "each contribute their strengths" to be a win-win: the European side brings the brand and engineering team, while the Chinese side brings technology and scale. In recycling especially, positioning matters—what the partner wants is not equipment, but operational experience and data to avoid detours. The biggest bottleneck in implementation is "Europe's pace." Construction cycles in Europe are far longer than in China, and labor, regulations, and processes all require readjustment. Cross-border team collaboration efficiency also needs improvement. Therefore, it is recommended to start with "small-scale pilot investments" to build mutual trust and validate the model. In recycling, the standardization of black mass classification and purification testing should be established within 12 months to set the rules for the industry.   Panel Discussion: Strategic Repositioning of Investments Across the European Battery Value Chain and Capital Flows Moderator: George Frangeskides, Chairman, GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc   Panelists:   Fabien Levaillant, Managing Director, BNP Paribas   Alban Letailleur, Head of Business Development, Imerys   Denise Xifara, Impact Ventures Director, EIT Urban Mobility The panelists noted that the problem with Europe's battery industry is the mismatch between funding and projects. Market capital is only willing to invest in large deals and mature projects, leaving early-stage projects in the upstream and midstream sectors overlooked, resulting in a serious funding gap. This gap can only be filled by public funds in a way that "accepts failure rates." At the same time, however, a reality must be pointed out: the EU's designation of "strategic projects" is largely nominal, and the actual funding comes from subsidies such as the Innovation Fund. Europe cannot catch up with China's cost and scale advantages in the short term. A more realistic path is to engage in technical cooperation with Asian partners to accelerate the technological progress of local enterprises. The underlying premise of all investment decisions is policy stability——if regulations keep changing, enterprises cannot make long-term plans, and capital will not enter the market.  Keynote Speech: Commercialization Timelines and Strategic Windows for Solid-State Batteries   Guest speaker: Dr. Dmitry Belov, Chief Scientist at ProLogium  (At the speaker's request, this speech is not open to the public)  Panel discussion: Navigating the Future - A Dialogue on Frontier Battery Technology Roadmaps Moderator:   Nicole Neub, Director Business Acquisition at Exentec Germany GmbH Panelists:   Matthew Howard, Head of Applied Technology and Business Development, The Extra Mile   Shan Chen, Senior Analyst, Rystad Energy   Ferdinand Ferstl, Partner, P3 Group   Lakshya Gupta, Senior Analyst, SFA Oxford   Albert Vila, Director of Business Development and Product Management, StoreDot   The panelists noted that solid-state batteries remain the most closely watched direction at present, but true large-scale commercial production may have to wait until after 2030, with the main bottlenecks currently being cost and manufacturing processes. Sodium-ion batteries will be the first to achieve large-scale application in the ESS sector, with China becoming the main market, and related products are also gradually entering the European market. Fast charging technology will become the core improvement point for user experience in the coming years, which requires coordinated optimisation across battery cells, vehicles, and infrastructure. The real bottleneck is industrialisation, not performance metrics that remain in the laboratory. Many technologies focus only on laboratory performance metrics while neglecting the feasibility and cost of large-scale production. European regulatory policies have a dual impact: in the long term, sustainability rules are conducive to the regulated development of the industry; but in the current phase of rapid growth, an excessive compliance burden will drive up project costs. The action strategy is to seek progress while maintaining stability. Stop engaging in vague discussions about new technologies and first put mature technologies into practice; accept moderate risks and use cross-border cooperation and AI-assisted R&D to shorten R&D cycles.  Panel Discussion: Localization of Battery Equipment and Materials – Opportunities and Hurdles   Moderator:  Sigrid Hasenbank, Senior Battery Expert, Freudenberg Sealing Technologies (FST GmbH) Panelists: Dr. Le Anh Ma, Business Development Manager, ABB Nicole Neub, Director Business Acquisition, Exentec Germany GmbH Dr.-Ing. Hannes Weinmann, Head of International Technical Center, Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. (LEAD) Otto Kivi, Business Creation Manager, Kemira Dr. Xiaohan Wu, Associate Partner, Porsche Consulting Martin Steinbild, General Manager Europe, Sichuan Calciner Technology Co., Ltd. The guests noted that the next key value point for Europe's battery industry lies in materials and recycling, which together account for 70% of the industry's total value. Europe has the foundational capabilities needed to develop its battery industry, spanning mining, chemicals, manufacturing, and other segments; the core issue is how to effectively integrate these existing resources. However, practical difficulties remain. Interface management for large-scale plant construction is chaotic. Equipment and process specifications are not clearly defined in the early stages, leading to repeated revisions and rising costs. In terms of energy and labor, the cost gap between Europe and China is significant. A viable cost-reduction path is to introduce mature Chinese technologies and adopt modular prefabricated construction. Europe's real shortcoming is decision-making speed. Clear long-term commitments are needed to avoid frequent changes in direction due to short-term price fluctuations.  November 3: Keynote Speeches   Keynote Speech: SMM Insights – Long-Term Outlook for Battery Raw Material Supply Guest Speaker: Lesley Yang, Senior Lithium Analyst, SMM     Panel Discussion: Diversifying Feedstock Sources for Local Refineries and Cross-Continental Synergy Frameworks Moderator:  Ignacio Fernández Ochoa, Chemical Plants Business Line Manager, IDOM Panelists: Merve Cruz, Partnership and Strategic Sourcing Director - Lithium, HELM AG Emanuel Proença, CEO, Savannah Resources Tobias Wabnitz, SVP of Business Development, Mangrove Lithium Dr. Axel C. Heitmann, Founder & CEO, Prime Lithium Astrid Karamira, EMEA Representative Director, International Lithium Association (ILiA)     Keynote Speech: From Battery Raw Materials to a Core Pillar of European Industrial Sovereignty Guest Speaker: Jaakko Savolainen, Deputy Chief Commercial Officer, Terrafame     Panel Discussion: Flattening the Lithium Cost Curve – Increasing Supply from DLE Projects Moderator: Dr. Ghada Nafie, Co-founder and CEO, Litus Panelists: Salvatore Pinizzotto, Co-founder and Managing Director, Xida Communications Charles McGill, CEO, ElectraLith   Dirk Steinhilber, Application Technology Manager, LANXESS Manfred Boeckmann, Chief Commercial Officer, Vulcan Energy Resources     Panel Discussion: Enhancing Local Processing Capabilities in Battery Recycling – Strategies for Capacity Building   Moderator: Thomas Bibienne, Battery Materials and Recycling Specialist, Hatch Panelists: Hans Bjerkaas, Chief Commercial & Development Officer, Hydrovolt Christian Spano, Natural Resources, strategy and business innovation Senior Executive, Vale Base Metals Paul Yum, Deputy General Manager, SungEel Hi Tech Co., Ltd.     Keynote Speech: The Hard Part: Turning Battery Recycling Technology into Commercial Operations in Europe   Guest Speaker: Dr. Julian Englberger, COO, cylib     Keynote Speech: How to Scale Direct Recycling Technology from Laboratory Breakthrough to Industrialization Guest Speaker: Charles Donadieu de Lavit, Project Manager, Blue Solutions     Panel Discussion: Enhancing Efficiency and Reducing Costs in European Battery Recycling Technologies   Moderator: Steven Lans, Founder and CEO, Back to Battery Panelists: Pelin Altinkaya, Hydrometallurgy Product Manager, Primobius GmbH Juha Kokko, Commercial Manager, Fortum Battery Recycling Laurent Cohen, Global Director of Strategic Development, Syensqo Antoine Welter, CEO and Co-founder, R3 Robotics     With that, the  Li-ion Battery Europe 2026 came to a successful close.   Thank you to all our industry peers for your support.  We look forward to seeing you again next year!

SMM, November 6: This week, lead prices fell first and then rose, swinging wildly in a V-shaped pattern. Scrap battery prices were generally stable; aside from a slight dip at the start of the week, almost no smelters raised prices in the latter half of the week, with prices following declines but not gains, showing resistance to falling and sluggishness in rising. From the start of the week to mid-week, lead prices remained low, and with the price protection period in effect, suppliers were active in selling, improving smelters' scrap battery raw material arrivals and allowing them to restock. After lead prices rebounded in Wednesday's night session, suppliers held back from selling, and shipments decreased on Thursday and Friday, weakening scrap battery recycling volume. After restocking raw materials, smelters' purchasing demand was weak, buying low without chasing highs, giving them the upper hand in negotiations. Currently, the downstream battery consumption peak season is nearing its end, and demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, scrap battery prices are expected to stabilize and remain flat, with a narrow stalemate, and the subsequent trend will mainly depend on lead prices and changes in smelters' scrap battery raw material inventories.