Latest Update in the SMM Separator Market

[SMM Analysis] Separator Market Prices Remain Stable Overall

Precious metals showed an overall weak bottoming pattern this week, dipping to around $4,073/oz after September CPI beat expectations across the board. Macro headwinds dominated: the hotter-than-expected CPI lifted odds of an October rate hike, US Treasury yields held at a high of 5.2%, and the US dollar index broke above 102 to hit a new year-to-date high. Williams' dovish remarks and the US-Russia diesel deal provided only temporary relief, while central bank gold purchases and fiscal credit concerns built a long-term floor. Going forward, focus will be on Waller's speech and the US Fed's October FOMC meeting.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Cell 210N Leads the Gains, Module Distributed Prices Edge Down on Concessions] The core driver behind this round of 210N price increases is tight spot supply among manufacturers after centralized project orders began to pick up, while 183 and 210R currently lack sufficient momentum to follow the gains. In the short term, 210N is likely to hold up well supported by tight inventory, while 183 and 210R will most likely remain stable. Going forward, attention should be paid to the sustainability of centralized project orders.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Spot silicon metal and polysilicon prices edge up, crucible prices under pressure and weakening] Spot silicon metal supply is tight, and the SI2611 contract trended strong, rising to a high of 8,750 yuan/mt yesterday before closing at 8,695 yuan/mt. With the rainy and dry seasons approaching in Sichuan and Yunnan, and top-tier players in the north having ample order backlogs with intentions to halt quotations, silicon metal fundamentals are strong and prices are firm, with bullish sentiment in the market increasing.

[SMM Analysis: Module Prices Ease Again Under Inventory Replenishment and High Production] After a brief shot up in late August, PV module prices entered a downward trajectory again from September to mid-October. SMM data shows that the average prices of mainstream TOPCon 210R distributed and centralized modules both pulled back by about 0.01 Yuan/W from the late-August high, a decline of 1%-1.5%; distributed quotes remained about 0.017 Yuan/W higher than centralized quotes throughout. The core driver of the price weakness remains on the supply side: module production has stayed at elevated levels for the year since rebounding from the spring low, while finished product inventories that had been drawn down earlier have recently begun to replenish again, leaving the supply-demand surplus essentially unchanged. Looking ahead to Q4, with inventories not yet effectively reduced and high production continuing, module prices lack the foundation for a trend reversal rebound and are expected to consolidate at lows.

[SMM Analysis: Polysilicon Industry Meeting Held Again Over the Weekend! Production Cuts? Price Limits?] As for the upside in downstream module prices, in my personal opinion, the IRR returns of end-user projects are always the key factor. Weak electricity price returns, the disappearance of subsidies, and individual IRRs falling as low as or even lower than bank deposit interest rates remain the core pain points. End users are not pushing for lower prices without limits; rather, their own return hurdles are difficult to clear. Only by improving their returns through certain measures (such as reducing other costs, raising electricity prices, or other auxiliary income, etc.) can module and even upstream prices have upside. Otherwise, forced price hikes will either put the midstream under pressure or possibly sacrifice the already limited demand.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Wafer Prices Temporarily Stabilize on Cost Support, Solar Cell Prices Hold Steady on Destocking] Currently, wafer inventory has edged up, and downstream procurement after the holiday has slowed down compared with the earlier period, weakening demand-side follow-through.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Glass Price Hikes Implemented, Silicon Metal Destocking, Polysilicon Production Cuts Continue to Advance] China's polysilicon production in October will decline significantly, with production expected to fall below 100,000 mt. In addition to expectations for production cuts at some bases in south-west China due to the dry season, some bases in Xinjiang and other regions also face expectations for production cuts under coordinated reduction efforts.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Post-holiday PV prices mostly stable across segments, solar cell inventory changes limited] Post-holiday silicon metal prices remained stable, with SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon at 9,400-9,500 yuan/mt. Yesterday, the most-traded futures contract was in a stalemate and moved sideways. The market was mainly in a wait-and-see mode after the holiday, with silicon suppliers holding firm quotes. Attention is on the pace of operating rate changes in the silicon metal upstream and downstream, as well as changes in capital sentiment.