Latest Update in the SMM Solar Market

[SMM Weekly Review: Pre-holiday PV Prices Hold Steady Across Multiple Segments Amid Wait-and-See Sentiment, Expectations for October Polysilicon Production Cuts Intensify] This week, the polysilicon price index stood at 41.08 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon quoted at 39.6-42.5 yuan/kg and granular polysilicon at 39-40 yuan/kg. Market quotes edged up this week, mainly driven by large-order transactions from a few top-tier players in the latter half of the week. Trading activity remained subdued, with both upstream and downstream participants maintaining a wait-and-see sentiment. Expectations for polysilicon production cuts in October are significant, with production expected to drop nearly 20% MoM, primarily due to production-cut meetings and the dry season. The reductions are mainly concentrated in the Southeast, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver Prices Drop Nearly 5% This Week as Rate Hike Concerns and Geopolitical Stalemate Drive Weakness] Silver prices fell sharply this week, dropping nearly 5%. Stronger-than-expected US PMI data and hawkish remarks from US Fed officials fueled rate hike concerns, with a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields weighing on valuations. Hopes for geopolitical de-escalation failed to materialize, and rising oil prices intensified inflation worries. However, a marginal dovish shift in US Fed commentary, a pullback in oil prices, and record-high ETF open interest provided bottom support. The spot market saw thin trading ahead of the holiday, with bid-ask price spreads widening. In the near term, silver prices are likely to consolidate on a weak note after the sharp decline, with the trend direction awaiting validation from PCE and non-farm payrolls data.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Trading cools before the holiday, polysilicon holds quotes firm while wafer market takes a wait-and-see stance] In September, operating rates among different silicon enterprises moved in both directions. Following production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang at the end of August, some silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang ramped up production in September. Overall, the reductions outweighed the increases, and silicon metal production fell MoM in September.

[SMM Analysis: PV Glass Prices Continue to Rise in October, with Demand-Side Constraints Emerging] Since August, PV glass prices have ended a half-year-long grind lower and entered a continuous upward trajectory: the average price of 3.2mm double-layer coated glass rose from 16.6 yuan/m² on August 3 to 17.3 yuan/m² on September 29, a cumulative increase of 0.7 yuan/m² (+4.2%); the average price of 2.0mm double-layer coated glass rose from 10.15 yuan/m² to 11.25 yuan/m² over the same period, a cumulative increase of 1.1 yuan/m² (+10.8%). In tandem with the price rise, industry days of inventories have been continuously declining to below 40 days, a decrease of 17.2%, as supply and demand transition from "deep oversupply" to "rebalancing." Looking ahead to October, supported by three factors—operating capacity contracting by over 20% from highs with rigid production resumption constraints from cold repairs remaining in place, continued inventory drawdown, and the Q4 installation peak season—SMM expects glass prices to be unlikely to fall, but the upside is also strongly constrained by downstream purchasing.

From September 21, 2026 to September 27, 2026, SMM statistics show that enterprises in China won bids for a total of 41 PV module projects, with an average winning bid price of 0.71 yuan/W. The total awarded procurement capacity was 1,291.42 MW, a decrease of 4,153.02 MW compared with the previous statistical period.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Solar Cell Destocking Diverges, EVA Continues to Rise While Film Awaits Price Hikes] Solar cell production in September has already declined compared with August, and October production is expected to continue the trend of production cuts, mainly because some manufacturers have gradually begun technological transformation of their cell production lines, limiting production release in the short term. Actual October production still needs to be verified by the pace of each company's technological transformation implementation. If the transformation progresses faster than expectations, the extent of supply contraction may further increase.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Silicon Metal Holds Prices Firm and Destocks, Centralized Module Prices Weaken on Concessions] This week, distributed module prices in China remained stable. Supported by costs, mainstream power quotes from enterprises were largely unchanged. Meanwhile, distributed demand has been declining month by month, and enterprises have shifted their shipment focus to the centralized market. On the centralized side, several projects have opened bids recently, showing a divergence in prices. Some enterprises targeting shipment volumes submitted lower bid prices, while those aiming to safeguard costs and profits mostly kept prices high. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7085 yuan/W, 0.718 yuan/W, and 0.723 yuan/W, respectively. Centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules are quoted at 0.696 yuan/W, 0.707 yuan/W, and 0.702 yuan/W, respectively.