Latest Update in the SMM Rare Earth Oxides Market

[SMM Analysis: Supply Tightens but Demand Weak, Rare Earth Market Sees Stalemate; Will Prices Recover in the Short Term?] This week, the overall rare earth oxide market was under pressure and in the doldrums. The price centers of Pr-Nd, dysprosium, and terbium all declined to varying degrees, but a clear divergence signal emerged towards the weekend. Pr-Nd oxide declined continuously from the beginning of the week to Thursday, falling from approximately 763,000-766,000 yuan/mt to 752,000-755,000 yuan/mt, a cumulative drop of about 11,000 yuan/mt. On Friday, boosted by higher futures prices and favorable news, spot suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices diminished, with offers rebounding slightly. However, actual transactions followed slowly, and inquiries from downstream magnetic material enterprises remained sluggish.

This week, the ex-China rare earth market saw mediocre trading, with prices generally stable. Trading volume pulled back due to the summer break and export approvals. Geopolitically, the Malaysian parliament was reviewing the supply agreement between Lynas and the US Department of Defense, stirring domestic controversy. On the supply side, Lynas’ Q2 production rose 8%, but Pr-Nd output was cut and heavy rare earth production commenced for the first time; exploration projects in Namibia and California made progress. On the demand side, an institutional report noted that AI is becoming the third major growth driver for rare earths, after defense and electrification, and is expected to account for 3% of magnet consumption by 2030.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth prices show divergence, Pr-Nd stronger while medium-heavy rare earths weaker] Overall, due to limited downstream inquiries, the trading atmosphere in the rare earth market was sluggish. For Pr-Nd products, offer prices edged up slightly as upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, but actual transaction performance was not ideal. In the short term, amid the tug-of-war and stalemate between upstream and downstream, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Pr-Nd Oxide Prices Pull Back Slightly, Rare Earth Market Overall in the Doldrums] This week, Pr-Nd oxide prices were slightly in the doldrums overall, mainly dragged down by the pullback in futures prices and persistently low purchase willingness from buyers, with some suppliers following suit to lower prices. However, factory quotations remained firm, with low-priced goods hard to find, and a fierce tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices have been adjusted down to 753,000-758,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Recycled Rare Earth Weekly Review: Oxide Prices Continue to Pull Back, NdFeB Scrap Market in the Doldrums] Overall, this week, scrap prices, affected by the continuous pullback in oxide prices, were in the doldrums overall. However, as the supply of compliant, tax-inclusive scrap remained tight, suppliers showed low willingness to sell at low prices, and trading in the scrap market was stagnant. In the short term, affected by the stalemate in the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream, scrap prices may move sideways.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices in the Doldrums, Downstream Demand Weak, Transactions Under Pressure] Overall, new orders from downstream were not ideal, and coupled with a pull back in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices, market inquiries remained persistently sluggish. As a result, rare earth market prices were broadly in the doldrums, with actual trading performance proving poor. In the short term, affected by weak supply-demand fundamentals, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to maintain a sideways trending pattern.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare Earth Prices Stable, Actual Transactions Insufficient] In summary, at this stage, downstream new orders are poor, and purchasing enthusiasm is low. Meanwhile, upstream suppliers have weak willingness to sell at low prices, with quotations remaining relatively firm. The tug-of-war between upstream and downstream persists, and overall prices remain stable. In the short term, affected by weak supply-demand fundamentals, Pr-Nd product prices may move sideways in a narrow range.

[SMM Rare Earth Daily Review: Rare earth prices in the doldrums, market trading remains sluggish] Overall, rare earth market prices are generally in the doldrums, mainly affected by multiple factors such as disappointing downstream new orders, a sluggish market trading atmosphere, and a decline in Pr-Nd oxide futures prices, prompting suppliers to lower their quotes slightly. In the short term, impacted by the stalemate in market trading, Pr-Nd product prices will likely move sideways.

[Oxides weaken slightly while medium-heavy rare earths stay firm; scrap circulation tightens, leading to a trading stalemate] Yesterday, NdFeB blank quotes temporarily held steady. The core reason was that stable raw material prices supported the stability of blank quotes. Regarding trading, as the off-season sets in, the production pace of end-users and motor factories is gradually slowing down. The release of rigid demand orders was moderate, while large-scale restocking orders have yet to be effectively released, resulting in a generally lukewarm overall NdFeB market trading volume.